By Muhammad A. Bello, fsi.

“…France is not on the back foot in Africa, it is just lucid and reorganising itself.”—- French President Emmanuel Macron speech at the 30th Ambassadors Conference in Paris (Monday, January 6, 2025)

Hours after this statement, extrapolated from an hour, minutes of Macron’s speech, it has been interpreted by pundits as a confirmation of President Gen. Abdurahmane Tchiani of Niger Republic revelations about France intentions to re-colonize Africa. According to Tchiani, the game plan of France is encapsulated in its secret proposal to build a new military command for Africa: Commandement pour l’Afrique.

This job, he reveals, is being handled by Jean-Marie Bockel (Macron’s Personal Envoy for Africa), and the duo of Colonel David Pawlowski and Lieutenant Colonel Paul Menon-Bertheux. In making this happen, France, he added, have bases in Porga town, Benin Republic (borders Burkina Faso), Pendjari National Park (borders Togo), Lake Chad in the Baga axis of Borno state and Gaba forest in Eastern Sokoto. The existence of the last two have been disputed by the Nigerian government. However, Tchiani claimed that on 4th March, 2024, France and ISWAP signed an MoU to have a base for Lakurawa at Gaba forest to serve Sokoto, Zamfara and Kebbi states.

On the part of Macron, he affirmed that the announced departure of the French bases would have been negotiated between the African countries which decreed it and France. His take is that France willingly pulled out of some West African countries out of simple convenience and politeness. “We proposed this reorganization. Out of politeness, we left them the primacy of the announcement. But make no mistake, it is we who made this decision, and sometimes we had to push them.”

“We took this decision together, he declares, pointing out “that no African country would be sovereign today if France had not deployed”.

But Senegalese Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko reacted by putting a lie to Macron’s statement: “I would like to say that, in the case of Senegal, this statement is completely erroneous. No discussions or negotiations have taken place to date and the decision taken by Senegal stems from its sole will, as a free, independent and sovereign country.

“Let us note that France has neither the capacity nor the legitimacy to ensure Africa’s security and sovereignty. On the contrary, it has often contributed to destabilizing certain African countries such as Libya with disastrous consequences noted for the stability and security of the Sahel.

“Finally, this is the place to remind President Macron that if African soldiers, sometimes mobilized by force, mistreated and finally betrayed, had not deployed during the Second World War to defend France, it would, perhaps, be even today, German,” Sonko concluded.

Like Sonko accurately pointed out, France has been at the mercy of many African countries and its Western supporters, like the United States. Yet, it is still insolvent owing to “high public debt”, amidst “high-income, advanced and diversified EU economy and euro user; strong tourism, aircraft manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, and industrial sectors.” Its “ongoing pension reform efforts”; transition “to a green economy via “France 2030” strategy,” (see CIA Report) are yet to bail it out of its conundrum; which is why it needs Africa, particularly West Africa, which has served its purpose well before Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger Republic turned their back against it and exited the ECOWAS union.

Going by the Pareto principles, which stipulates that 80% of the output from a given situation or system, is determined by 20% of the input; the AES countries (Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger Republic), are 15 % of ECOWAS; and influences the way in which the pendulum of regional integration will swing.

Macron’s speech and the subsequent reactions reveal the complexities of France-Africa relations. While France portrays its actions as respectful of African sovereignty, allegations of neo-colonial ambitions persist. The economic underpinnings of France’s policies, coupled with regional dynamics, suggest a multifaceted struggle for influence and autonomy. It appears the chickens are coming home to roost.

Bello resides in Abuja.

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