Is Afrobeats struggling to mint new stars?

2024 has been a challenging year for the global music industry with several markets struggling to mint stars and major labels engaging in massive layoffs.

For some observers, 2024 has been a slow year for Nigerian music with no major breakout star. Others might opine that the new artists who have attracted mainstream attention are a reflection of the current climate in the local ecosystem and even the larger global pop framework.

Many who hold the sentiments that Afrobeats has struggled in 2024 do so mostly from comparing the success of the preceding years, especially the last two years where Asake, Seyi Vibez, Odumodublvck, and Shallipopi rose from relative obscurity to superstardom.

The absence of an emphatic breakout star in 2024 that mirrors their impact and success and the absence of the corresponding volume and weight of hit songs has created a somewhat pessimistic evaluation of the year.

While some industry executives and tastemakers have attempted to contextualise the conversation by pointing out that palpable digital success, valuable industry co-signs, and a handful of charting records are sufficient criteria with which to define a breakout star, the very need for such context suggests that something might indeed be wrong.

What are the possible reasons Afrobeats is struggling to mint new stars?

High Ceiling

To get into the possible reasons behind the struggles of minting new stars in 2024, we must appreciate the success of the breakout stars of the past 2 years. Asake’s soundscape shaping fusion, Seyi Vibez's industrious street pop, Odumodublvck's energetic rap flows, and Shallipopi's formless street hits combined to set a very high standard for those coming after them.

While Nigerian mainstream music has consistently minted new stars since the rise of the digital era in the mid-2010s, the impact of social media in amplifying the success of the class of 2022/2023 through every chart-topper and sold-out concert has created criteria that emerging acts must pass to qualify as breakout stars.

Afrobeats' poor showing on the global stage

Culture Journalist Chinonso Ihekire the concerns over the lack of breakthrough stars in 2024 mostly stems from Nigerian mainstream music's weak showing on the global stage.

“I think, in terms of global exports, we haven’t had it that great this year. Locally, we still have a surge in new entrants to the industry, but there’s just really no new entrants from here on the global scene”.

Ihekire also attributes Afrobeats’ poor showing on the global stage to a funding issue that stems from inequitable distribution and poor prioritisation rather than a lack of capital.

Afrobeats' lack of a global hit in 2024 is also further amplified by the success of South African star Tyla who carted away the global categories traditionally dominated by Afrobeats. Despite Tyla’s ‘Water’ being markedly Afrobeats in its elements, the singer made it a point to disassociate from the genre and instead choose to identify with the Amapiano movement from her home country.

Consistency and volume

Emmanuel Zhaji founder of Album Talks opines that the absence of an emphatic breakout star in 2024 is due to the lack of multiple hit records by the artists being touted as the new class of stars. All of Asake, Seyi Vibez, Odumodublvck, and Shallipopi had a collection of hit singles in their respective break-out years. A feat, Zhazi says is clearly missing in 2024.

“To be a nondebatable proper breakout star in a said year, you need consistency, and none of the contenders has been consistent with their peak.”

On why this is the case, Zhaji declined to engage in the excessive analysis that shapes such subjects.

“We can try to overanalyse things but whenever a star good enough to break out wants to break out, there’s not a single thing that can stop them”.

Consumer passiveness

There continue to be concerns over the massive attention consumers pay to heavily marketed regurgitated sounds. On Air Personality Realskillz blames the struggles to mint new stars on the inability of consumers to appreciate emerging artists coming offering a new sound.

“The public are busy consuming bandwagonism which they have been tricked into happily accepting. So when new artists doing unique things need a sizable number of listeners to push them to fame, the public is busy consuming what they have been peer-pressured to listen to. Hence why we have so many super talented artists who are under the underrated umbrella.”

On the flip side of this argument that lays the blame at the foot of the audience is the defense that consumers will mostly listen to what is heavily marketed to them, and the biggest artists have the deepest pockets to propel their songs to commercials.

The diminishing return of Amapiano fusion

Asake's entrance in January 2022 kicked off a new wave in the Afrobeats' exploration of South African Amapiano sound marked by its thumping log drums, shakers, and speaker rattling baseline.

Asake’s vibrant fusion will bring him success, and it became the pathway through which Seyi Vibez and Shallipopi soared to stardom, and even KCee scored another mainstream run.

Two years later, Amapiano fusion in Afrobeats appears to have been stretched to its creative limits, and the industry is at a point of diminishing return with artists struggling to deliver hit records.

With the absence of an era-defining sound for new artists to add their touch, they had to rely on the strength of their talent to win over listeners and soar to fame. Ayo Maff, Taves, Nasboi, Boy Pee, Hyce, and Brown Joel (Ogechi Boys), Llona, Kaestyle, ShineTTW, Wizard Chan, Muyeez, and TML Vibez are some of the artists that have captured listeners attention with successful releases. However, when their impact is juxtaposed with those from the class of 2022 and 2023, one will appreciate the question marks over their status as breakout stars.

A global phenomenon

2024 has been a challenging year for the global music industry with several markets struggling to mint stars and major labels engaging in massive layoffs.

In the United States, Country music and Pop had breakout stars with Shaboozey, Bailey Zimmerman, Chapelle Roan, Sabrina Carpenter, Teddy Swims, and Benson Boone. However, hip-hop struggled to mint a new star with Sexy Redd being the sole notable entrant.

Dancehall, Afrobeats, and even the vibrant K Pop scene have had a slow year with no notable breakout stars. A problem some experts have attributed to short consumer attention spans and the proliferation of music.

Bottom line

However one chooses to view it, there have been new stars in Nigerian music in 2024. That they didn’t hit the levels of their predecessors is a reflection of the state of the industry and perhaps their talent.

At any rate, this is a reminder for artists and their handlers to pay attention to making music that connects with the pulse of the consumers. The artisiness and unoriginality of releases have diminished the interest and organic support needed to rocket an artist from relative obscurity to stardom.

While the industry awaits a new star that ticks all the boxes, the debate over the adjustment of the criteria for a breakout star rages on. Should a run of consecutive hit singles and a wide acceptance be the metric? Or is a popular song, a couple of millions in streams, and some traction on social media the new metric?

The next set of breakout stars might be the decider.

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